EDM beat VAN 6–1. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 1.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Josh Samanski scored at 1:58 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Kevin Lankinen allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:58 | EDM | Josh Samanski from Colton Dach, Evan Bouchard | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 6:48 | EDM | Matt Savoie from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 12:10 |  VAN | Ty Mueller from Curtis Douglas, Kevin Lankinen | 1–2 | 16% → 30% |
| P1 14:35 | EDM | Matt SavoiePP from Connor McDavid | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 19:02 | EDM | Matt SavoiePP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 1–4 | 85% → 93% |
| P2 16:46 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-HopkinsPP from Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid | 1–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 8:20 | EDM | Colton Dach from Connor Murphy, Darnell Nurse | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Mueller C | 12:59 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zeev Buium D | 21:38 | +0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 12:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 13:36 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kudryavtsev D | 17:33 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 17:29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 18:19 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 15:59 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 13:15 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:33 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 27:44 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 14:06 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 18:15 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:27 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 14:53 | −0.35 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 16:19 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 15:11 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | −1.99 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Savoie C | 15:59 | 3 | +2.12 | +0.01 | +2.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Samanski C | 14:27 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Colton Dach C | 13:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 17:48 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.06 | +0.49 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 16:22 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 19:01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 18:16 | 4 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.45 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.08 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 16:34 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 14:37 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 13:17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 18:11 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 18:54 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 20:21 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 21:52 | 3 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Henrique C | 12:23 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:14 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 19:19 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 17:02 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.51 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Ingram G | 69:32 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.