CGY beat LAK 3–1. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Zayne Parekh scored at 6:08 of the third, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Arsenii Sergeev saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:21 | CGY | Morgan FrostPP from Matvei Gridin, Matt Coronato | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 6:43 |  LAK | Quinton Byfield from Trevor Moore, Alex Laferriere | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 6:08 | CGY | Zayne Parekh from Zach Whitecloud, Ryan Strome | 1–2 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 19:20 | CGY | Joel FarabeeEN from Zach Whitecloud | 1–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:51 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.00 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:33 | +0.39 | +0.40 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandt Clarke D | 19:34 | +0.34 | +0.31 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:26 | +0.31 | +0.23 | −0.21 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 21:39 | +0.16 | +0.37 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Wright R | 10:38 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 8:33 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:05 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Ward R | 6:59 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 20:31 | −0.08 | +0.22 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 16:44 | −0.09 | +0.28 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 18:26 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Laferriere R | 20:02 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Samuel Helenius C | 8:06 | −0.16 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 19:41 | −0.19 | +0.25 | −0.43 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 16:08 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 13:33 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 18:01 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.28 | −0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 70:59 | −0.37 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zayne Parekh D | 22:10 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.19 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.02 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 12:56 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 16:37 | −0.01 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 18:34 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 19:53 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 22:12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 9:03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 16:08 | −0.13 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 13:16 | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:30 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:22 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:13 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rory Kerins C | 12:26 | −0.32 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 19:24 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Aydar Suniev L | 11:46 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Abram Wiebe D | 13:50 | −0.39 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 20:40 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.17 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenii Sergeev G | 60:00 | +2.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.