STL beat UTA 5–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Logan Mailloux scored at 17:03 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Joel Hofer allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:45 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Pius Suter | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:55 |  UTA | Michael Carcone from JJ Peterka, John Marino | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 0:45 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from MacKenzie Weegar, Clayton Keller | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:14 | STL | Robert Thomas from Dylan Holloway | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 11:07 | STL | Robert Thomas from Cam Fowler, Dylan Holloway | 3–2 | 47% → 69% |
| P2 18:52 | UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from MacKenzie Weegar, Clayton Keller | 3–3 | 28% → 53% |
| P3 17:03 | STL | Logan Mailloux unassisted | 4–3 | 49% → 91% |
| P3 19:22 | STL | Robert ThomasEN from Jimmy Snuggerud, Philip Broberg | 5–3 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 16:54 | 3 | +1.69 | +0.12 | +1.55 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 22:34 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.13 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.05 | +0.62 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 22:11 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pius Suter C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:06 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Holl D | 18:04 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonatan Berggren R | 15:03 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 18:51 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 18:44 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 17:58 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 14:23 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:25 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:48 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 14:05 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 14:13 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:47 | −0.42 | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | −1.25 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Carcone L | 17:49 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.14 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 14:11 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:35 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.25 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:29 | +0.22 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| John Marino D | 19:14 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 16:21 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:25 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:25 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 20:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 11:52 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 13:51 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 20:14 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Simashev D | 12:19 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 21:02 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 16:27 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam O'Brien C | 12:06 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 17:29 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 18:15 | −0.38 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 27:47 | −0.33 |
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −0.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.