ANA beat NSH 5–4. ANA also won the expected-goals battle 4.7 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Troy Terry scored on the power play at 17:06 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 92%. Ville Husso allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:36 |  ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Ryan Poehling, John Carlson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:09 |  NSH | Steven Stamkos from Cole O'Hara | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 15:55 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Ryan Ufko, Steven Stamkos | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P1 19:39 | ANA | Jackson LaCombe from Jacob Trouba, Mason McTavish | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:33 | ANA | Alex Killorn from John Carlson, Mikael Granlund | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 14:37 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Luke Evangelista, Ryan Ufko | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 15:23 | NSH | Steven StamkosPP from Ryan O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista | 3–4 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 4:17 | ANA | Tristan Luneau from Mikael Granlund, Jeffrey Viel | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 17:06 | ANA | Troy TerryPP from Mikael Granlund, Leo Carlsson | 5–4 | 51% → 92% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:27 | 1 | +1.35 | +0.50 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Tristan Luneau D | 11:37 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.18 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 18:15 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.36 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 19:39 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 16:42 | +0.54 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:19 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.16 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 20:24 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.24 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 13:41 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 16:23 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 22:56 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:36 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Tim Washe C | 10:30 | −0.15 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 8:34 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:58 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:08 | 3 | −0.27 | +0.19 | −0.47 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 12:22 | −0.30 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 15:47 | −0.33 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 18:32 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.49 | −1.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 69:54 | −1.80 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:49 | 2 | 1 | +1.61 | +0.11 | +1.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Filip Forsberg L | 17:01 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.20 | +1.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 14:22 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 12:16 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:55 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kevin Gravel D | 16:36 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 18:37 | −0.16 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole O'Hara R | 11:23 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ozzy Wiesblatt C | 12:53 | −0.18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 20:29 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Kemell R | 13:42 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 18:32 | −0.20 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 16:46 | −0.20 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 21:40 | −0.29 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 15:11 | −0.36 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 15:31 | −0.50 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 8:19 | −0.51 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Skjei D | 20:40 | −0.59 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 59:25 | −0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.