CHI beat SJS 5–2. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Greene scored at 8:35 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 82%. Yaroslav Askarov allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:09 |  SJS | Mario Ferraro from Kiefer Sherwood | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:17 | SJS | Michael MisaPP from Dmitry Orlov, Kiefer Sherwood | 2–0 | 68% → 82% |
| P2 19:30 | CHI | Sam Rinzel from Ryan Donato | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 3:51 | CHI | Louis Crevier from Connor Bedard | 2–2 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 8:35 | CHI | Ryan Greene from Ethan Del Mastro, Andre Burakovsky | 2–3 | 52% → 82% |
| P3 10:32 | CHI | Louis Crevier from Tyler Bertuzzi | 2–4 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 14:44 | CHI | Nick Lardis from Connor Bedard, Wyatt Kaiser | 2–5 | 98% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Ferraro D | 18:44 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.12 | +0.82 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Misa C | 14:37 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.03 | +0.63 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| William Eklund L | 17:03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:53 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 18:17 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 10:11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 20:45 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 16:34 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:29 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:19 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Smith C | 16:59 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:52 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:07 | −0.23 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 17:06 | −0.24 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Cagnoni D | 21:06 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 15:25 | −0.29 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:33 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 18:54 | −0.54 | −0.18 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 79:29 | −2.02 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Crevier D | 19:09 | 2 | +2.02 | +0.21 | +1.63 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Rinzel D | 19:00 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.12 | +0.88 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Greene C | 18:09 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.36 | +0.47 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nick Lardis L | 13:59 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 21:20 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 15:14 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.29 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 14:01 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 16:00 | +0.09 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 17:51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:40 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 15:51 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 15:02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 21:30 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:57 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Frondell C | 13:14 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 17:51 | 2 | −0.34 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.39 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:51 | −0.39 | +0.09 | −0.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 16:03 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.30 | −0.75 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:00 | −0.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.