OTT beat TOR 3–1. OTT also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Batherson scored on the power play at 6:04 of the first, moving OTT’s win probability from 54% to 69%. Dennis Hildeby saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:04 | OTT | Drake BathersonPP from Claude Giroux, Jordan Spence | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P2 18:32 | OTT | Warren FoegelePP from Lassi Thomson, Fabian Zetterlund | 0–2 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 8:11 | TOR | William Nylander from Jacob Quillan, Easton Cowan | 1–2 | 5% → 18% |
| P3 19:54 | OTT | Dylan CozensEN from Shane Pinto, Claude Giroux | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 20:28 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.18 | +0.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Tverberg C | 10:40 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 14:29 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 10:02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Villeneuve D | 16:39 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:03 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 12:51 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 19:09 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:03 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 18:23 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 19:35 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 16:22 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| John Tavares C | 20:05 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Luke Haymes C | 14:44 | −0.26 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:05 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:04 | −0.36 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 16:39 | −0.37 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 20:17 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dennis Hildeby G | 67:12 | +1.32 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Batherson R | 17:08 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.15 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 16:11 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.05 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 18:35 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.26 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Jordan Spence D | 23:22 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.28 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolas Matinpalo D | 18:39 | +0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 15:32 | +0.05 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lassi Thomson D | 17:23 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cameron Crotty D | 18:53 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 14:28 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Stephen Halliday C | 13:42 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 17:10 | −0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 12:51 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Artem Zub D | 22:13 | −0.12 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hayden Hodgson R | 13:00 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Claude Giroux R | 17:12 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.22 | −0.54 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 7:45 | −0.19 | +0.09 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:56 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Pinto C | 18:00 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.04 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:00 | +0.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.