FLA beat DET 8–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vinnie Hinostroza scored at 4:57 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. John Gibson allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:57 | FLA | Vinnie Hinostroza from Wilmer Skoog | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 5:37 | FLA | Luke Kunin from Matthew Tkachuk, Marek Alscher | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 8:56 | FLA | A.J. GreerPP from Noah Gregor, Ludvig Jansson | 0–3 | 88% → 96% |
| P2 9:39 | FLA | Mike Benning from Wilmer Skoog, Eetu Luostarinen | 0–4 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 12:41 | FLA | Mike Benning from Donovan Sebrango, Mackie Samoskevich | 0–5 | 99% → 99% |
| P2 16:12 |  DET | Justin Faulk from Alex DeBrincat, Ben Chiarot | 1–5 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 8:56 | FLA | Cole Schwindt from Marek Alscher, Mikulas Hovorka | 1–6 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 9:37 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Luke Kunin, Matthew Tkachuk | 1–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 18:12 | FLA | Luke Kunin from Cole Reinhardt | 1–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 19:58 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.85 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 14:50 | +0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:01 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Mazur L | 13:11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 16:58 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:08 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 15:06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 14:29 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 15:45 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 17:14 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 18:09 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 15:13 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 18:38 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 16:51 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Brandsegg-Nygård R | 16:22 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 18:41 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| J.T. Compher L | 16:06 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 15:57 | −0.36 | −0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 42:09 | −2.03 |
| John Gibson G | 47:51 | −2.33 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Benning D | 21:34 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.04 | +1.68 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 18:32 | 2 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.01 | +1.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.90 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 14:52 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Schwindt C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Marek Alscher D | 20:33 | 2 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Foote L | 13:15 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ludvig Jansson D | 18:08 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 14:55 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 20:03 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 20:17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 14:03 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 13:00 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wilmer Skoog C | 14:00 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 13:19 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 13:43 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikulas Hovorka D | 19:08 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | +1.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.