STL beat PIT 7–5. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Dylan Holloway scored at 4:11 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Jordan Binnington allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:14 | PIT | Rutger McGroarty from Kevin Hayes | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:40 | PIT | Avery Hayes unassisted | 2–0 | 64% → 79% |
| P1 17:23 | PIT | Anthony Mantha from Kevin Hayes | 3–0 | 79% → 92% |
| P1 18:44 | STL | Jimmy Snuggerud from Robert Thomas | 3–1 | 8% → 20% |
| P2 2:58 | PIT | Elmer Soderblom from Ben Kindel, Anthony Mantha | 4–1 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 4:51 | STL | Oskar Sundqvist from Alexey Toropchenko, Philip Broberg | 4–2 | 6% → 18% |
| P2 10:37 | STL | Logan Mailloux from Jonathan Drouin, Jake Neighbours | 4–3 | 15% → 31% |
| P2 15:49 | STL | Jimmy SnuggerudPP from Jake Neighbours, Dylan Holloway | 4–4 | 30% → 53% |
| P3 4:11 | STL | Dylan Holloway from Jimmy Snuggerud, Robert Thomas | 4–5 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 4:55 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Jordan Binnington | 4–6 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 12:20 | PIT | Avery Hayes from Ryan Shea, Arturs Silovs | 5–6 | 3% → 15% |
| P3 18:17 | STL | Dylan HollowayEN from Jimmy Snuggerud, Logan Mailloux | 5–7 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avery Hayes R | 13:48 | 2 | +1.42 | −0.11 | +1.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rutger McGroarty R | 15:21 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elmer Soderblom L | 13:43 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.22 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 18:23 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.17 | +0.55 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Joona Koppanen L | 10:51 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noel Acciari C | 14:05 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 14:20 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ville Koivunen R | 18:09 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 18:54 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John St. Ivany D | 21:00 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Brazeau R | 16:41 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rafael Harvey-Pinard L | 11:01 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Livanavage D | 25:14 | −0.23 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tommy Novak C | 19:56 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 21:58 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 14:01 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ben Kindel C | 18:05 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 14:31 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arturs Silovs G | 17:30 | −0.86 |
| Stuart Skinner G | 40:00 | −1.48 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 16:40 | 2 | 2 | +1.58 | +0.30 | +1.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Logan Mailloux D | 21:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.14 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 12:30 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.03 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:51 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.07 | +0.53 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 19:02 | 2 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.33 | +0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Pius Suter C | 16:00 | +0.30 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 18:54 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.33 | −0.11 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:16 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 21:38 | 1 | +0.14 | +0.33 | −0.24 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:36 | +0.11 | +0.22 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 23:26 | +0.09 | +0.32 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:47 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 13:43 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 15:04 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Kessel D | 12:54 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Walker L | 11:39 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 12:48 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:45 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.04 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:00 | −2.20 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.