MIN beat ANA 3–2. MIN lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Hunter Haight scored at 11:24 of the second, moving MIN’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Jesper Wallstedt saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:27 |  ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Jackson LaCombe, Ryan Poehling | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:42 | MIN | Danila Yurov from Vladimir Tarasenko | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 11:24 | MIN | Hunter Haight from Nick Foligno, Marcus Johansson | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 13:03 | MIN | Robby Fabbri from Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Ben Jones | 1–3 | 86% → 98% |
| P3 19:14 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Mikael Granlund, Cutter Gauthier | 2–3 | 0% → 4% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 17:36 | 2 | +1.80 | +0.29 | +1.31 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 18:33 | +0.20 | +0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 21:43 | +0.14 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:16 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 14:34 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 17:54 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:53 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.27 | −0.45 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 8:31 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 17:44 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 15:06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 7:27 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 9:48 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 24:14 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.26 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 20:24 | −0.17 | +0.19 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 21:00 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Cutter Gauthier L | 18:14 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.20 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 56:53 | −0.89 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danila Yurov R | 16:54 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Hunter Haight C | 12:57 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.03 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 12:08 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Viking Gustafsson Nyberg D | 20:38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 13:56 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matt Kiersted D | 20:19 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:34 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Jones C | 13:23 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Middleton D | 18:43 | −0.13 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 18:08 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:49 | −0.22 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 11:58 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 20:06 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 17:03 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.29 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Daemon Hunt D | 21:01 | −0.41 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 14:23 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt G | 60:00 | +1.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.