WSH beat CBJ 2–1. WSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jakob Chychrun scored on the power play at 15:53 of the third, moving WSH’s win probability from 51% to 88%. Clay Stevenson saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–CBJ | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:27 |  CBJ | Boone Jenner from Mason Marchment, Danton Heinen | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 10:46 | WSH | Anthony Beauvillier from Trevor van Riemsdyk | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 15:53 | WSH | Jakob ChychrunPP from Tom Wilson, Alex Ovechkin | 2–1 | 51% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jakob Chychrun D | 23:05 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.12 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:50 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.41 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 16:05 | +0.34 | +0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 20:03 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 18:17 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 10:36 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Protas L | 16:06 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:58 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 13:04 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 19:54 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 16:42 | −0.04 | +0.20 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 10:01 | −0.10 | +0.16 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 13:18 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 16:05 | −0.15 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:48 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.37 | −0.59 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 16:26 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 16:39 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.15 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:30 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Clay Stevenson G | 59:37 | +1.89 |
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denton Mateychuk D | 18:16 | +0.28 | +0.32 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 14:12 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.28 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Conor Garland R | 13:36 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 14:01 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 15:39 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 21:17 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 19:35 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Christiansen D | 10:11 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 10:45 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 14:40 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 25:59 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 10:51 | −0.32 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 18:48 | −0.36 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 9:56 | −0.37 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 18:41 | −0.51 | −0.47 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:00 | −0.59 | +0.03 | −0.62 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:07 | −0.60 | −0.20 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:15 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.00 | −0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 58:24 | +1.08 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.