CAR beat NYI 2–1. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mark Jankowski scored at 14:38 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Brandon Bussi saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:05 | CAR | Nikolaj Ehlers from Felix Unger Sorum, Logan Stankoven | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 13:14 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Mathew Barzal, Victor Eklund | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
| P3 14:38 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Joel Nystrom, Alexander Nikishin | 2–1 | 49% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 17:34 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.07 | +0.78 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:02 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.04 | +0.54 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Nikishin D | 23:40 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| William Carrier L | 10:40 | +0.04 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Nystrom D | 15:51 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ronan Seeley D | 15:12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 22:01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 16:40 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 19:17 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Felix Unger Sorum R | 14:35 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:29 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:28 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Skyler Brind'Amour C | 15:41 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 18:44 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Robinson L | 14:07 | −0.27 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 22:10 | −0.33 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 12:58 | −0.53 | +0.11 | −0.63 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 60:00 | +2.17 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Horvat C | 20:18 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.05 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:56 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 15:47 | +0.03 | +0.15 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:37 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 17:45 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaiah George D | 16:33 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 19:09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 17:30 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:25 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Victor Eklund R | 15:30 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 19:38 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:48 | −0.14 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 24:13 | −0.19 | +0.29 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Foudy C | 11:17 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carson Soucy D | 15:44 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:31 | −0.28 | +0.18 | −0.45 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 15:55 | −0.37 | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:55 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| David Rittich G | 56:29 | −0.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.