SJS beat NSH 3–2. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Igor Chernyshov scored on the power play at 9:53 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 68%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 1.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:53 |  SJS | Igor ChernyshovPP from William Eklund, Michael Misa | 1–0 | 48% → 68% |
| P3 3:04 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Igor Chernyshov, Will Smith | 2–0 | 74% → 91% |
| P3 15:39 |  NSH | Luke Evangelista from Nick Perbix, Ryan Ufko | 2–1 | 1% → 12% |
| P3 18:15 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniEN from Collin Graf, Alexander Wennberg | 3–1 | 92% → 100% |
| P3 18:50 | NSH | Luke EvangelistaPP from Ryan Ufko, Roman Josi | 3–2 | 0% → 5% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 19:34 | 2 | +0.50 | −0.18 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Igor Chernyshov L | 15:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.14 | +0.65 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 20:59 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 11:17 | −0.01 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 16:57 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 12:01 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 10:58 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 19:56 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:40 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 19:45 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:54 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 16:33 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 16:30 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:03 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Cagnoni D | 14:53 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 11:55 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Smith C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 22:42 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 59:53 | +1.68 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Evangelista R | 19:06 | 2 | +1.70 | +0.33 | +1.36 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 23:02 | +0.21 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 17:25 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:48 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Wilsby D | 18:17 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Kemell R | 5:11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 6:36 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Perbix D | 16:15 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 17:34 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:29 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 16:30 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 11:39 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 14:52 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 10:02 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fedor Svechkov C | 11:49 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 22:19 | −0.22 | −0.07 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:09 | −0.24 | +0.23 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Steven Stamkos C | 22:50 | −1.11 | +0.24 | −1.39 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 58:08 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.