STL beat MIN 6–3. STL lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Theo Lindstein scored at 16:41 of the second, moving STL’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:22 |  STL | Colton Parayko from Robert Thomas, Jimmy Snuggerud | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 14:46 | MIN | Nick Foligno from Yakov Trenin, Daemon Hunt | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 19:13 | MIN | Danila YurovPP from Vladimir Tarasenko, Marcus Johansson | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:59 | MIN | Michael McCarronSH from Nick Foligno | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 4:04 | STL | Otto Stenberg from Tyler Tucker, Alexey Toropchenko | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 4:31 | STL | Pavel Buchnevich from Jordan Kyrou, Cam Fowler | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 16:41 | STL | Theo Lindstein from Jonathan Drouin, Dalibor Dvorsky | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 3:05 | STL | Jake Neighbours unassisted | 3–5 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 16:56 | STL | Jimmy SnuggerudEN unassisted | 3–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foligno L | 17:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.18 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Michael McCarron C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.12 | +0.71 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Danila Yurov R | 18:53 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.04 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 16:42 | +0.18 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:35 | +0.12 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 14:51 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Jones C | 10:06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 9:12 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viking Gustafsson Nyberg D | 21:57 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Kiersted D | 19:15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 19:34 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daemon Hunt D | 18:21 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby Brink R | 18:06 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.34 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:37 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 10:23 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 16:28 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 11:13 | −0.47 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Hunter Haight C | 14:40 | −0.64 | −0.04 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:49 | −2.39 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 17:07 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.04 | +0.68 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 16:09 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.89 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Otto Stenberg C | 10:44 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.04 | +0.55 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Theo Lindstein D | 15:34 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.05 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Neighbours L | 13:26 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Philip Broberg D | 21:52 | +0.25 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 12:35 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 17:57 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 15:49 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.10 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 11:44 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Pius Suter C | 14:36 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 15:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 17:16 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Mailloux D | 24:17 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:35 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 15:44 | 1 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Robert Thomas C | 18:01 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.26 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Dylan Holloway L | 17:00 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 59:50 | +0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.