DAL beat TOR 6–5. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mavrik Bourque scored at 14:52 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Casey DeSmith allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:14 | TOR | John TavaresPP from William Nylander | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 14:35 | TOR | Jacob Quillan from Steven Lorentz | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 15:51 | TOR | William Nylander from Jake McCabe, Simon Benoit | 0–3 | 85% → 92% |
| P2 0:52 |  DAL | Mavrik Bourque unassisted | 1–3 | 6% → 14% |
| P2 5:31 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Jason Robertson, Matt Duchene | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 9:29 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Matt Duchene, Mavrik Bourque | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 1:40 | TOR | Max Domi from William Nylander, Matthew Knies | 3–4 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 4:19 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Troy Stecher, Matthew Knies | 3–5 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:18 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Thomas Harley | 4–5 | 5% → 18% |
| P3 9:38 | DAL | Arttu Hyry unassisted | 5–5 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 14:52 | DAL | Mavrik Bourque from Matt Duchene, Alexander Petrovic | 6–5 | 49% → 86% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mavrik Bourque C | 15:56 | 3 | 1 | +2.02 | +0.10 | +1.91 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:26 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.26 | +0.60 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Arttu Hyry R | 12:44 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.01 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 18:24 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.07 | +0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colin Blackwell C | 12:34 | +0.22 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 24:24 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 19:23 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 21:22 | +0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Capobianco D | 14:57 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Bäck C | 14:27 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 18:36 | 3 | +0.04 | +0.27 | −0.33 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 16:48 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 20:46 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 13:04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 14:20 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 16:29 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 12:51 | −0.28 | +0.06 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 10:24 | −0.35 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith G | 60:00 | −2.44 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 14:40 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Quillan C | 12:26 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.10 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:03 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.10 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| William Nylander R | 22:50 | 1 | 2 | +0.54 | −0.21 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Troy Stecher D | 18:41 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 14:32 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 9:22 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:51 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 22:30 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Villeneuve D | 16:35 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 20:10 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:14 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Tverberg C | 9:04 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 18:27 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 17:57 | −0.29 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Haymes C | 12:02 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 19:31 | 2 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 13:19 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Artur Akhtyamov G | 59:05 | −2.35 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.