PHI beat CAR 3–2 in a shootout. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Trevor Zegras scored on the power play at 10:30 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 32% to 53%. Dan Vladar saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:41 | CAR | Bradly Nadeau from Nikolaj Ehlers, Sean Walker | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 15:30 | CAR | Nikolaj EhlersPP from Logan Stankoven, Jackson Blake | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 7:57 |  PHI | Matvei Michkov from Denver Barkey, Noah Cates | 2–1 | 17% → 32% |
| P2 10:30 | PHI | Trevor ZegrasPP from Porter Martone, Tyson Foerster | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Hall L | 18:43 | +0.35 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:25 | 1 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.32 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 14:22 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Stankoven C | 20:19 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.24 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 12:13 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 16:16 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.38 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 10:23 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Skyler Brind'Amour C | 14:25 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 23:11 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:21 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Mark Jankowski L | 13:16 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Jackson Blake R | 20:26 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.48 | −0.55 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 15:01 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 14:05 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 15:21 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 27:44 | −0.44 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 23:38 | −0.46 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 24:13 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Bussi G | 64:51 | +1.97 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 18:36 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.01 | |
| Matvei Michkov R | 15:33 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.44 | +0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Cam York D | 23:54 | +0.23 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 12:50 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 11:37 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Glendening C | 11:00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 10:28 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:32 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | ||
| Porter Martone R | 17:16 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 21:32 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.36 | +0.27 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 12:13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 25:45 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denver Barkey C | 15:00 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.12 | −0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Noah Cates L | 15:22 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.09 | −0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:18 | −0.51 | −0.45 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 18:50 | −0.58 | −0.08 | −0.69 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 19:35 | −0.66 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 80:38 | +1.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.