FLA beat NYR 3–2. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Reinhardt scored at 18:10 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Jonathan Quick allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:35 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Tobias Bjornfot, Vinnie Hinostroza | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 11:31 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich unassisted | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 15:19 | NYR | Matthew Robertson from Noah Laba | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P2 17:20 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Adam Fox, Alexis Lafrenière | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 18:10 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Luke Kunin, Donovan Sebrango | 2–3 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Robertson D | 17:05 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.07 | +0.91 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gabe Perreault R | 16:36 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.13 | +0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Fox D | 28:10 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.50 | −0.31 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 22:10 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 15:32 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 21:26 | +0.08 | +0.33 | −0.34 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 11:50 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Fortescue D | 13:02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 21:13 | −0.02 | +0.37 | −0.37 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 17:35 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 15:28 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 10:33 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Sykora L | 9:57 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 20:13 | −0.18 | +0.13 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 13:29 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:35 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Laba C | 11:04 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:45 | −0.39 | +0.16 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 58:17 | −1.82 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Reinhardt L | 16:03 | 2 | +1.35 | −0.20 | +1.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 11:38 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.73 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ludvig Jansson D | 18:38 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 12:27 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:52 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 13:58 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:51 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nolan Foote L | 10:52 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 21:35 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:43 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 13:21 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 20:00 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 16:09 | −0.19 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Wilmer Skoog C | 15:14 | −0.23 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 14:48 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marek Alscher D | 22:04 | −0.29 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 15:50 | −0.29 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 21:57 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | +1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.