CGY beat UTA 4–1. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Coronato scored at 7:06 of the first, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Dustin Wolf saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:06 | CGY | Matt Coronato from Morgan Frost, Brayden Pachal | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 8:27 | CGY | Connor Zary from Zayne Parekh, Zach Whitecloud | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P3 6:01 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Blake Coleman, Brayden Pachal | 0–3 | 94% → 99% |
| P3 9:10 | CGY | Brayden Pachal from Aydar Suniev, Olli Maatta | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 11:20 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller, MacKenzie Weegar | 1–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lawson Crouse L | 18:55 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.09 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 16:17 | +0.15 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:07 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 20:06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 19:53 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitri Simashev D | 13:31 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 15:01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:21 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 12:03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Guenther R | 15:38 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 22:25 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 16:50 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:07 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 21:23 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:29 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 20:49 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| JJ Peterka R | 14:01 | −0.42 | −0.05 | −0.37 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 19:21 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.39 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:46 | −0.86 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brayden Pachal D | 14:47 | 1 | 2 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:42 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.71 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Connor Zary C | 14:45 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.01 | +0.43 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Coronato R | 17:28 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.06 | +0.51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 23:08 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:39 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 17:20 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 22:41 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 20:07 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Abram Wiebe D | 7:44 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Gross C | 9:15 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Aydar Suniev L | 11:27 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 16:45 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 12:13 | −0.14 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 16:50 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 23:49 | 1 | −0.47 | +0.07 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 20:25 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.07 | −0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 59:59 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.