VAN beat ANA 4–3 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Marco Rossi scored on the power play at 4:50 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:41 |  ANA | Cutter Gauthier from Chris Kreider, Alex Killorn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:49 | VAN | Curtis Douglas from Aatu Räty, Kirill Kudryavtsev | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 14:37 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Marco Rossi, Filip Hronek | 2–1 | 48% → 64% |
| P3 4:28 | VAN | Brock BoeserSH unassisted | 3–1 | 74% → 92% |
| P3 5:05 | ANA | Cutter GauthierPP from Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 6:56 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Chris Kreider | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| OT 4:50 | VAN | Marco RossiPP from Zeev Buium, Brock Boeser | 4–3 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rossi C | 18:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.31 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Curtis Douglas C | 6:19 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.05 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 19:39 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 23:08 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.06 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ty Mueller C | 10:26 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:07 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Kudryavtsev D | 14:17 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew O'Connor L | 16:27 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 23:36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:07 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 15:57 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 18:47 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 22:03 | −0.26 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:43 | −0.29 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 10:05 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 15:55 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 18:16 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 27:42 | 1 | −0.55 | −0.05 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 64:50 | +0.71 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cutter Gauthier L | 13:47 | 2 | +1.41 | +0.11 | +1.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:58 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.20 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 28:32 | +0.18 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 26:06 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:25 | +0.10 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 10:05 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 18:51 | +0.04 | +0.17 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 11:37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 20:52 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 9:00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 11:36 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 26:31 | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:18 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.10 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Jeffrey Viel L | 11:12 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 15:33 | 2 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 23:13 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 19:49 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.08 | −0.55 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 21:02 | −0.69 | +0.01 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 64:50 | −0.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.