MTL beat NYI 4–1. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored at 15:56 of the second, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Jacob Fowler saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:56 | MTL | Nick Suzuki from Juraj Slafkovský, Lane Hutson | 1–0 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 16:24 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson | 2–0 | 72% → 87% |
| P2 16:51 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Zachary Bolduc, David Reinbacher | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 8:45 |  NYI | Casey Cizikas from Scott Mayfield, Ryan Pulock | 3–1 | 1% → 5% |
| P3 19:45 | MTL | Zachary Bolduc from Alex Newhook, Kirby Dach | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov R | 11:45 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.18 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 13:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.03 | +0.82 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Zachary Bolduc R | 14:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.12 | +0.73 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Nick Suzuki C | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.22 | +0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lane Hutson D | 22:51 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 17:12 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 18:53 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.21 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jake Evans C | 17:03 | −0.03 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 26:05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:16 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Reinbacher D | 11:17 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 18:43 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Kapanen C | 10:31 | −0.11 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:41 | −0.14 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 11:59 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Arber Xhekaj D | 12:41 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:27 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 17:43 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Fowler G | 59:53 | +2.26 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey Cizikas C | 11:24 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.12 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 12:40 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 12:34 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:46 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Gatcomb C | 8:57 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:30 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 8:45 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 22:44 | −0.15 | +0.10 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 22:40 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.24 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:30 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 13:03 | −0.19 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 19:11 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:08 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:06 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.41 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 17:15 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 20:38 | −0.36 | +0.05 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:43 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 28:01 | −0.67 | +0.05 | −0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 56:57 | −1.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.