VAN beat SJS 4–3 in a shootout. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Teddy Blueger scored on the power play at 17:00 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 9% to 49%. Kevin Lankinen saved 1.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:19 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Macklin Celebrini | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:56 |  VAN | Marco Rossi from Victor Mancini | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:02 | SJS | Tyler Toffoli from Sam Dickinson, Michael Misa | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 17:37 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson | 2–2 | 25% → 48% |
| P3 12:44 | SJS | Igor Chernyshov from Macklin Celebrini, Dmitry Orlov | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 17:00 | VAN | Teddy BluegerPP from Linus Karlsson | 3–3 | 9% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:15 | 1 | +1.25 | +0.45 | +0.78 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 13:48 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 18:52 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:46 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.22 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:20 | +0.29 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 13:48 | +0.17 | +0.25 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mancini D | 14:19 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 13:59 | +0.04 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:47 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Mueller C | 13:02 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:15 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 18:45 | −0.19 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 22:52 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 30:55 | 1 | −0.53 | +0.09 | −0.48 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 21:30 | −0.80 | −0.25 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 17:11 | −0.87 | −0.14 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:33 | 1 | −1.01 | −0.01 | −0.62 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 64:56 | +1.78 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Igor Chernyshov L | 17:59 | 2 | +1.27 | +0.29 | +1.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.32 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 12:04 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.07 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 24:27 | +0.32 | +0.32 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Macklin Celebrini C | 22:14 | 2 | +0.23 | −0.06 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.79 | |
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 10:51 | +0.13 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 19:07 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 16:22 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 22:43 | −0.07 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 13:26 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 21:35 | −0.11 | −0.23 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 17:02 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 20:44 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 17:26 | −0.27 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Michael Misa C | 11:58 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.05 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Gaudette R | 9:18 | −0.67 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.49 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 12:43 | −0.75 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Will Smith C | 22:26 | −1.01 | −0.13 | −0.39 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| William Eklund L | 18:32 | −1.05 | −0.09 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 65:00 | +0.88 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.