FLA beat TOR 6–2. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.3, TOR 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Mackie Samoskevich scored at 4:13 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 75% to 92%. Joseph Woll allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:23 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Mackie Samoskevich | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 5:32 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Donovan Sebrango, Vinnie Hinostroza | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 1:32 | FLA | Tomas Nosek from Marek Alscher | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 10:55 |  TOR | William NylanderPP from John Tavares, Easton Cowan | 3–1 | 5% → 15% |
| P2 13:16 | TOR | William Nylander unassisted | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 4:13 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich from A.J. Greer, Eetu Luostarinen | 4–2 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 15:56 | FLA | A.J. GreerEN from Eetu Luostarinen, Mackie Samoskevich | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 18:07 | FLA | Tomas NosekEN from Noah Gregor | 6–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:40 | 2 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.86 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 15:29 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.08 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 13:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:10 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | −0.08 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 |
| Marek Alscher D | 19:21 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Donovan Sebrango D | 19:30 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 15:41 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 21:54 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 21:38 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 14:52 | −0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 14:49 | 1 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Wilmer Skoog C | 15:49 | −0.12 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 15:04 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ludvig Jansson D | 18:42 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 15:18 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 17:16 | −0.22 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nolan Foote L | 14:13 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 60:00 | −0.24 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 19:48 | 2 | +1.26 | +0.18 | +1.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Villeneuve D | 18:45 | +0.29 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:01 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 16:56 | +0.14 | +0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 21:02 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 14:48 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Luke Haymes C | 14:40 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:13 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:06 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Easton Cowan R | 16:59 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 9:37 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 14:38 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:21 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 18:42 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 12:50 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Max Domi C | 15:23 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 16:30 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 57:55 | −2.18 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.