NJD beat DET 5–3. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 3.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 16:26 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 49% to 89%. John Gibson allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:41 |  DET | Justin Faulk from Dylan Larkin, Emmitt Finnie | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 10:40 |  NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Dougie Hamilton | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 11:59 | DET | David Perron from J.T. Compher | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 15:16 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Johnathan Kovacevic, Dennis Cholowski | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 7:00 | DET | Emmitt Finnie from Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin | 2–3 | 52% → 81% |
| P3 11:18 | NJD | Cody Glass from Timo Meier, Jonas Siegenthaler | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 16:26 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jack Hughes, Connor Brown | 4–3 | 49% → 89% |
| P3 19:00 | NJD | Dawson MercerEN from Nico Hischier, Dougie Hamilton | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:01 | 2 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.15 | +0.75 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack Hughes C | 19:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.14 | +0.38 | +0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Cody Glass C | 12:13 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.06 | +0.28 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 18:42 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.22 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:36 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Cholowski D | 14:49 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 18:17 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Timo Meier R | 20:51 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.23 | −0.25 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 11:56 | +0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:55 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 8:54 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc McLaughlin C | 7:49 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 11:51 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Halonen L | 8:04 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:58 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.18 | −0.14 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 21:12 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.19 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:52 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 20:13 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | +0.09 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Kasper C | 9:14 | +0.38 | +0.21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 16:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.27 | −0.03 | +0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| David Perron L | 15:37 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.07 | +0.25 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 22:31 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.29 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:54 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:39 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.16 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Albert Johansson D | 10:31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 7:13 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 10:59 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Mazur L | 14:43 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Shine R | 6:17 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 26:47 | −0.15 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:00 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 22:12 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:08 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.35 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:47 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 21:12 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 17:41 | −0.37 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:45 | −1.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.