SEA beat VGK 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (VGK 3.1, SEA 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Bobby McMann scored at 9:16 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 21% to 52%. Joey Daccord saved 1.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:04 | VGK | Mark Stone from Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 0:55 | VGK | Mark StonePP from Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 17:54 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Vince Dunn, Chandler Stephenson | 2–1 | 12% → 28% |
| P3 1:11 | VGK | Brett Howden from Pavel Dorofeyev, Mitch Marner | 3–1 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 6:11 | SEA | Berkly Catton from Adam Larsson, Vince Dunn | 3–2 | 7% → 23% |
| P3 9:16 | SEA | Bobby McMann from Jordan Eberle | 3–3 | 21% → 52% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stone R | 20:13 | 2 | +1.09 | +0.06 | +1.32 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.38 | |
| Brett Howden C | 15:34 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.11 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 19:18 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.06 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.66 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:05 | +0.10 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 12:05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:42 | +0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 12:05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 14:32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 10:12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 29:03 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 14:46 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 24:50 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 15:36 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 23:32 | −0.47 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 18:26 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:19 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.49 | |
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 15:30 | 1 | −0.79 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 65:00 | −0.49 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Berkly Catton C | 11:01 | 1 | +1.62 | −0.11 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.01 | |
| Matty Beniers C | 21:17 | +0.85 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.60 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:21 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.75 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.17 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Oscar Fisker Molgaard C | 9:01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 22:50 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joshua Mahura D | 16:04 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 22:30 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:10 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:23 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:19 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob Melanson R | 9:01 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:05 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.22 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.49 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 24:09 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Winterton C | 15:02 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.00 | |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 15:06 | −0.35 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.32 | ||
| Kaapo Kakko R | 18:09 | −0.66 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 65:00 | +1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.