COL beat CGY 3–1. COL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog scored on the power play at 18:44 of the first, moving COL’s win probability from 54% to 71%. Dustin Wolf saved 2.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:44 | COL | Gabriel LandeskogPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 15:01 | COL | Martin Necas from Nathan MacKinnon, Brent Burns | 0–2 | 75% → 90% |
| P3 17:08 | CGY | Tyson GrossPP from Matvei Gridin, Matt Coronato | 1–2 | 1% → 8% |
| P3 19:05 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Martin Necas | 1–3 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Gross C | 13:15 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Zayne Parekh D | 17:57 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 22:19 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Pachal D | 11:59 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 23:31 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 19:27 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 12:07 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 9:25 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aydar Suniev L | 11:56 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 18:31 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:39 | −0.27 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 14:18 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:16 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 19:11 | −0.35 | −0.23 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 20:31 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 18:48 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Beecher C | 12:50 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 19:15 | 1 | −1.09 | −0.27 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 57:38 | +2.28 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 14:21 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.12 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 19:59 | 1 | 2 | +0.63 | +0.15 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Devon Toews D | 22:26 | +0.34 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 21:48 | +0.19 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:45 | +0.14 | +0.28 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:00 | +0.13 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 18:34 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:32 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 14:37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 13:40 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 11:19 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 16:01 | −0.17 | +0.13 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 18:49 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 8:58 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 16:51 | −0.27 | +0.23 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 8:53 | −0.43 | +0.05 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:23 | 1 | 2 | −0.66 | +0.16 | −0.70 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 60:00 | +1.31 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.