CAR beat CHI 7–2. CAR also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Logan Stankoven scored at 17:10 of the first, moving CAR’s win probability from 47% to 65%. Spencer Knight allowed 4.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:19 |  CAR | Sean Walker from Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:48 | CHI | Anton Frondell from Louis Crevier | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 17:10 | CAR | Logan Stankoven unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:08 | CAR | Logan Stankoven from Taylor Hall, Jackson Blake | 3–1 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 14:50 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from Alexander Nikishin, William Carrier | 4–1 | 87% → 96% |
| P3 5:47 | CAR | K'Andre Miller from William Carrier | 5–1 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 6:09 | CHI | Anton Frondell from Louis Crevier, Alex Vlasic | 5–2 | 0% → 1% |
| P3 8:13 | CAR | Taylor Hall from Shayne Gostisbehere, Logan Stankoven | 6–2 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 12:51 | CAR | Mark Jankowski from William Carrier, Nicolas Deslauriers | 7–2 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Jankowski L | 12:23 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.07 | +1.59 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Logan Stankoven C | 17:44 | 2 | 1 | +1.43 | +0.02 | +1.49 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Sean Walker D | 23:06 | 1 | +0.91 | +0.09 | +0.84 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Hall L | 15:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.03 | +0.57 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| K'Andre Miller D | 21:05 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson Blake R | 17:20 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Skyler Brind'Amour C | 15:34 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:40 | 3 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 15:35 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 11:44 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Robinson L | 14:46 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 13:57 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Charles Alexis Legault D | 16:43 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Nikishin D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:26 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josiah Slavin L | 15:58 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bradly Nadeau L | 15:28 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 9:49 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.05 | −0.35 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | +0.36 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anton Frondell C | 20:31 | 2 | +1.19 | −0.01 | +1.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 17:57 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 17:12 | 2 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Bedard C | 20:22 | +0.05 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 16:33 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 9:30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 16:35 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 15:53 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 21:57 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 9:45 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:42 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 17:56 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 16:39 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:33 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 12:29 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 16:32 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 18:33 | −0.44 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 59:55 | −4.82 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.