DAL beat MIN 5–4. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jason Robertson scored at 10:35 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 83%. Filip Gustavsson allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:26 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Justin Hryckowian, Mikko Rantanen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:02 | MIN | Quinn Hughes from Mats Zuccarello | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:44 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 2–1 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 6:39 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 8:03 | DAL | Colin Blackwell from Esa Lindell | 3–2 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 16:16 | DAL | Cameron Hughes from Colin Blackwell, Oskar Bäck | 3–3 | 29% → 53% |
| P2 19:49 | MIN | Ryan HartmanPP from Jared Spurgeon, Quinn Hughes | 4–3 | 49% → 72% |
| P3 4:28 | DAL | Mikko Rantanen from Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston | 4–4 | 25% → 52% |
| P3 10:35 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Esa Lindell | 4–5 | 52% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 23:00 | 2 | +1.25 | −0.10 | +1.29 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 14:37 | 1 | +1.19 | +0.02 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.03 | |
| Quinn Hughes D | 31:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.06 | +0.69 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonas Brodin D | 16:35 | +0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Spurgeon D | 17:22 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 12:04 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 9:55 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 13:50 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 24:38 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 11:55 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danila Yurov R | 14:14 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:12 | 3 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 20:47 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.35 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 14:55 | −0.16 | +0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 10:39 | −0.31 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 10:08 | −0.33 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 12:53 | −0.49 | +0.14 | −0.60 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:10 | −0.59 | −0.03 | −0.63 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 58:15 | −3.02 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Blackwell C | 9:56 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.13 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Cameron Hughes C | 8:57 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.07 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 16:14 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.09 | +0.80 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 17:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.77 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Tyler Myers D | 22:38 | +0.21 | +0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Hryckowian C | 17:24 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 13:24 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.46 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:08 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 12:55 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 25:03 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.36 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 5:45 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 15:10 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Lian Bichsel D | 20:25 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 25:17 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 10:35 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 17:00 | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 14:20 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 60:00 | −0.55 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.