NYI beat TOR 5–3. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matthew Schaefer scored at 9:39 of the second, moving NYI’s win probability from 53% to 74%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:08 |  NYI | Brayden SchennPP from Calum Ritchie, Bo Horvat | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 4:55 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Maksim Shabanov, Adam Pelech | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 5:11 | TOR | Steven Lorentz unassisted | 1–2 | 18% → 31% |
| P2 1:57 | TOR | Easton CowanPP from John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 9:39 | NYI | Matthew Schaefer from Tony DeAngelo, Ondrej Palat | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 16:44 | NYI | Emil HeinemanPP from Mathew Barzal, Tony DeAngelo | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 10:20 | NYI | Calum RitchiePP unassisted | 2–5 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 14:04 | TOR | Morgan Rielly from Matias Maccelli, Luke Haymes | 3–5 | 0% → 2% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Easton Cowan R | 18:54 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.08 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.90 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Lorentz C | 15:15 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Troy Stecher D | 20:57 | +0.25 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:43 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 25:06 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Quillan C | 13:24 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 18:56 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:17 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 17:47 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:24 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Haymes C | 12:47 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 11:19 | −0.25 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:52 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.18 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| William Nylander R | 21:53 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 15:37 | −0.45 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:18 | −0.53 | −0.11 | −0.47 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Artur Akhtyamov G | 56:23 | +0.37 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Schaefer D | 24:50 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.25 | +0.68 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Emil Heineman L | 15:55 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.18 | +0.61 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:28 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.61 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:56 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.36 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 21:16 | +0.24 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calum Ritchie C | 15:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.03 | +0.36 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Adam Pelech D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 10:41 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 14:02 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Mayfield D | 13:35 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:33 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maksim Shabanov R | 12:51 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 17:08 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 19:50 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.12 | −0.38 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:19 | −0.27 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 21:36 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.04 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 10:20 | −0.40 | +0.06 | −0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 16:24 | −0.43 | +0.07 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 59:32 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.