BUF beat CBJ 5–0. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Peyton Krebs scored at 13:41 of the first, moving BUF’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Colten Ellis saved 3.7 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:41 | BUF | Peyton Krebs from Josh Norris | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P3 7:19 | BUF | Josh Doan unassisted | 0–2 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 13:21 | BUF | Jack Quinn from Logan Stanley, Jason Zucker | 0–3 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 13:46 | BUF | Josh Doan from Zach Benson, Josh Norris | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 16:55 | BUF | Rasmus DahlinEN from Logan Stanley, Tyson Kozak | 0–5 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Gudbranson D | 15:46 | +0.10 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:30 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 10:37 | +0.08 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 13:37 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Isac Lundeström C | 13:29 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 23:04 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 24:41 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denton Mateychuk D | 18:06 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 11:39 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Boone Jenner C | 12:50 | −0.11 | +0.12 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 15:25 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 9:18 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.41 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 10:22 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kirill Marchenko R | 21:58 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 12:39 | −0.34 | +0.14 | −0.52 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 28:46 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.26 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 17:56 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 21:25 | −0.57 | −0.06 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jet Greaves G | 57:52 | −2.00 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Doan R | 14:42 | 2 | +1.43 | +0.10 | +1.33 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 14:48 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.12 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | |
| Peyton Krebs C | 14:35 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 19:26 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:32 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 14:36 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 21:03 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 19:47 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 9:38 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 12:00 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 21:16 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:53 | −0.20 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:11 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 14:18 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 15:39 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 16:19 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tage Thompson C | 16:47 | −0.41 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 60:00 | +3.66 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.