NSH beat ANA 5–0. NSH lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Erik Haula scored at 7:07 of the second, moving NSH’s win probability from 47% to 67%. Justus Annunen saved 5.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 7:07 |  NSH | Erik Haula from Joakim Kemell, Adam Wilsby | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 11:26 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly | 2–0 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 19:00 | NSH | Brady SkjeiSH from Nick Perbix, Ryan O'Reilly | 3–0 | 88% → 97% |
| P3 9:51 | NSH | Zachary L'Heureux from Joakim Kemell, Erik Haula | 4–0 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 15:07 | NSH | Fedor Svechkov from Tyson Jost, Ryan Ufko | 5–0 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brady Skjei D | 23:19 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.06 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 |
| Zachary L'Heureux L | 13:44 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Fedor Svechkov C | 10:55 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.07 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Filip Forsberg L | 16:21 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.06 | +0.63 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Perbix D | 22:12 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:52 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Kemell R | 12:24 | 2 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 12:59 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 15:31 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Jost C | 15:50 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Barron D | 17:33 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Wilsby D | 21:47 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Steven Stamkos C | 16:03 | −0.25 | +0.08 | −0.42 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Ryan Ufko D | 15:35 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Wood R | 14:44 | −0.28 | +0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Reid Schaefer L | 8:09 | −0.35 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 20:55 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Justus Annunen G | 59:43 | +5.16 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 17:26 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 19:15 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 25:04 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Hinds D | 13:13 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 8:58 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 11:46 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 12:09 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 11:31 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:31 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 21:45 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 21:56 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 8:39 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 15:29 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 23:35 | −0.48 | −0.05 | −0.51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 13:31 | −0.51 | +0.03 | −0.33 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 20:14 | −0.62 | −0.08 | −0.74 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 8:49 | −0.67 | +0.09 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Terry R | 20:44 | −0.77 | +0.03 | −1.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 60:00 | −1.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.