VGK beat VAN 2–1. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Cole Smith scored at 12:13 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 49% to 83%. Nikita Tolopilo saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 12:50 | VAN | Max Sasson from Teddy Blueger, Linus Karlsson | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 15:46 |  VGK | Brayden McNabb from Shea Theodore, Brandon Saad | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 12:13 | VGK | Cole Smith from Nic Dowd | 2–1 | 49% → 83% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Smith L | 9:30 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.14 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 21:23 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.10 | +0.92 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 17:35 | +0.37 | +0.40 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 13:53 | +0.28 | +0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 17:17 | +0.11 | +0.22 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Shea Theodore D | 20:37 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 12:55 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.24 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 22:27 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:28 | +0.06 | +0.16 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 22:22 | +0.04 | +0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 13:16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 17:10 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.23 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 12:07 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Dorofeyev L | 17:05 | −0.21 | +0.21 | −0.41 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 17:58 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.39 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 18:46 | −0.24 | +0.37 | −0.64 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 13:22 | −0.34 | +0.18 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Saad L | 13:25 | 1 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.49 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:43 | +0.11 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Sasson C | 10:57 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.15 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 11:52 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 21:18 | −0.00 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson D | 16:09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Hoglander L | 12:16 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 21:09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:54 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:38 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Curtis Douglas C | 9:48 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:59 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 18:28 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 11:56 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 19:59 | −0.25 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 26:53 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Mancini D | 12:03 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 18:02 | −0.37 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 19:00 | −0.38 | −0.40 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 16:20 | −0.52 | −0.50 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 58:19 | +1.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.