UTA beat EDM 6–5 in overtime. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored on the power play at 0:33 of overtime, moving UTA’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Tristan Jarry allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–UTA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:53 | UTA | JJ Peterka from Ian Cole, Michael Carcone | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 2:04 |  EDM | Curtis Lazar from Adam Henrique, Mattias Ekholm | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 8:56 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Evan Bouchard, Tristan Jarry | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:43 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Kasperi Kapanen | 3–1 | 64% → 78% |
| P2 10:28 | UTA | Nick Schmaltz from Clayton Keller, Lawson Crouse | 3–2 | 16% → 31% |
| P2 15:19 | UTA | Logan Cooley from Dylan Guenther, Sean Durzi | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:06 | EDM | Vasily Podkolzin from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 19:24 | UTA | Nick SchmaltzSH from John Marino, Alexander Kerfoot | 4–4 | 27% → 51% |
| P3 2:09 | EDM | Colton Dach from Trent Frederic, Jason Dickinson | 5–4 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 12:56 | UTA | Alexander Kerfoot from Sean Durzi, Michael Carcone | 5–5 | 16% → 51% |
| OT 0:33 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Mikhail Sergachev, Dylan Guenther | 5–6 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vasily Podkolzin R | 15:43 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.02 | +0.67 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 7:51 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.14 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 22:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.02 | +0.39 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| Colton Dach C | 14:01 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.17 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 16:51 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.36 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Trent Frederic C | 14:44 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Dickinson C | 15:20 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:20 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 23:44 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 23:15 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Jones L | 7:26 | −0.18 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Savoie C | 19:44 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Walman D | 15:10 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 11:36 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jack Roslovic C | 17:12 | −0.30 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 22:33 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:58 | 1 | −0.44 | −0.33 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 13:06 | −0.48 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 60:33 | −3.05 |
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:23 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.12 | +1.46 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 18:28 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.08 | +0.74 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 17:04 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.09 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| JJ Peterka R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.02 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 19:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.23 | +0.65 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 17:13 | +0.22 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:50 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Durzi D | 15:24 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 7:09 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 15:11 | 2 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 3:19 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 18:36 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.15 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 17:10 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 21:01 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.14 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dylan Guenther R | 18:10 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.16 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:11 | −0.14 | +0.11 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:34 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 18:59 | −0.63 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:06 | −2.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.