DAL beat CGY 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Wyatt Johnston scored on the power play at 3:39 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:30 |  DAL | Justin Hryckowian from Thomas Harley, Nils Lundkvist | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 12:38 | CGY | Joel Farabee from Adam Klapka, Olli Maatta | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 18:52 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Adam Klapka, Zach Whitecloud | 2–1 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 0:26 | CGY | Zayne ParekhPP from Matt Coronato, Matvei Gridin | 3–1 | 74% → 90% |
| P3 1:16 | DAL | Wyatt Johnston from Mikko Rantanen | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 4:51 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Matt Duchene, Tyler Myers | 3–3 | 24% → 52% |
| OT 3:39 | DAL | Wyatt JohnstonPP from Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen | 3–4 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zayne Parekh D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.74 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:49 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.05 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Farabee L | 15:57 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.03 | +0.43 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Aydar Suniev L | 11:16 | +0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 24:04 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Gridin R | 18:11 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 1:15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 22:40 | −0.02 | +0.21 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 9:12 | 2 | −0.11 | +0.15 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 15:59 | −0.12 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 18:01 | −0.16 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 13:48 | −0.18 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 13:10 | −0.24 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 7:58 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 17:17 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 29:52 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.56 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:38 | −0.72 | −0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 30:00 | 1 | −1.62 | −1.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 63:39 | +0.56 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston C | 22:12 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.69 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:09 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.81 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Hryckowian C | 16:16 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.19 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 24:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.40 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 21:08 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.66 | −0.43 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lian Bichsel D | 13:42 | +0.24 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:47 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 10:56 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Arttu Hyry R | 15:30 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 20:11 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Lundkvist D | 14:00 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 18:37 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.60 | −0.76 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Tyler Myers D | 14:30 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Bäck C | 13:53 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 20:36 | −0.14 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mavrik Bourque C | 19:16 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 9:29 | −0.38 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 63:38 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.