MTL beat FLA 4–3 in a shootout. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 4.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nick Suzuki scored on the power play at 19:39 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 4% to 51%. Jakub Dobes saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:23 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Donovan Sebrango | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 0:54 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovský | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 13:43 | FLA | Cole Reinhardt from Luke Kunin, Seth Jones | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 6:22 | MTL | Phillip DanaultPP from Noah Dobson, Adam Engstrom | 2–2 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 7:49 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Gustav Forsling, Jesper Boqvist | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 19:39 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovský | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 21:54 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.16 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Reinhardt L | 9:59 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.02 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 20:23 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.23 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.32 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 26:24 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.33 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Benning D | 15:29 | +0.16 | +0.46 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 10:40 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 11:00 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 29:27 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.14 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:44 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 19:24 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 20:48 | −0.29 | +0.18 | −0.33 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.11 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 15:53 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 16:44 | −0.38 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:29 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 15:42 | −0.42 | +0.39 | −0.99 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Schwindt C | 13:58 | −0.53 | −0.17 | −0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | ||
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 20:04 | −0.76 | +0.30 | −1.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Daniil Tarasov G | 65:00 | +0.49 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov R | 20:19 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.01 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.39 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 19:27 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.13 | +0.37 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.01 | +0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Alexandre Texier L | 16:18 | +0.36 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.41 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 19:09 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 11:26 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 17:15 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | ||
| Lane Hutson D | 25:44 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Engstrom D | 15:50 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.22 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 22:49 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:06 | −0.18 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kirby Dach C | 13:51 | −0.23 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 17:02 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 13:19 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 11:36 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:52 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.22 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Evans C | 15:37 | −0.35 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:36 | 2 | −0.69 | +0.15 | −0.85 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 63:28 | +2.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.