STL beat COL 3–2. STL also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Robert Thomas scored at 17:10 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 49% to 91%. Mackenzie Blackwood saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:01 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:10 |  COL | Parker Kelly from Brent Burns, Logan O'Connor | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 3:40 | COL | Brent Burns from Nick Blankenburg, Brock Nelson | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:09 | STL | Robert Thomas from Dylan Holloway, Jimmy Snuggerud | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P3 17:10 | STL | Robert Thomas from Jimmy Snuggerud, Dylan Holloway | 3–2 | 49% → 91% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Thomas C | 20:13 | 3 | +2.38 | +0.35 | +1.95 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Tucker D | 12:49 | +0.27 | +0.28 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:56 | +0.25 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 21:50 | +0.22 | +0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 12:19 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Mailloux D | 19:47 | +0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Parayko D | 23:14 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Theo Lindstein D | 14:01 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 22:19 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 15:10 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Dalibor Dvorsky R | 11:13 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 15:10 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 14:49 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Finley C | 12:06 | −0.24 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.07 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:12 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Holloway L | 18:32 | 3 | −0.37 | +0.28 | −0.67 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonatan Berggren R | 13:48 | −0.41 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Snuggerud R | 17:32 | 3 | −0.95 | +0.26 | −1.22 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joel Hofer G | 60:00 | +0.28 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parker Kelly C | 11:35 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.15 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brent Burns D | 17:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.44 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:53 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 8:07 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Zakhar Bardakov C | 4:45 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:15 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:26 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 21:25 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 20:07 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 11:38 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 21:00 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 15:39 | −0.22 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:37 | −0.23 | +0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 21:56 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.50 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 11:56 | −0.45 | −0.07 | −0.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:02 | −0.53 | −0.36 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:33 | −0.63 | −0.34 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 21:38 | −0.63 | −0.05 | −0.66 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 58:35 | +1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.