Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2026-04-04 · Climate Pledge Arena

4 – 2Final

CHI beat SEA 4–2. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.4 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Teuvo Teravainen scored on the power play at 9:15 of the second, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 68%.

Shots on goal
31 – 27
Expected goals
3.4 – 2.6
xG share
CHI 57%
Home-ice start
SEA 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

CHI goalSEA goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

CHISEA

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

SEA
1 G, 1 A · 14:08 TOI
Finishing +0.72
+0.77
SEA
1 G, 0 A · 14:39 TOI
Finishing +0.75
+0.69
SEA
58:19 TOI
GSAx +0.63
+0.63

Rough nights

CHI
0 G, 0 A · 15:12 TOI
On-ice +0.08 · Finishing −0.67
−0.62
SEA
0 G, 0 A · 15:57 TOI
On-ice −0.19 · Finishing −0.39
−0.57
SEA
0 G, 0 A · 22:02 TOI
On-ice −0.22 · Finishing −0.13 · Penalties −0.19
−0.56

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalCHI–SEAWin prob.
P2 9:15 CHITeuvo TeravainenPP
from Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar
1–048% → 68%
P2 19:37 CHITyler Bertuzzi
from Ilya Mikheyev, Wyatt Kaiser
2–072% → 89%
P3 10:48 SEAJaden Schwartz
from Eeli Tolvanen, Matty Beniers
2–14% → 19%
P3 13:08 CHISacha Boisvert
from Kevin Korchinski, Landon Slaggert
3–184% → 97%
P3 14:18 SEAKaapo Kakko
from Berkly Catton, Jaden Schwartz
3–22% → 14%
P3 18:48 CHIIlya MikheyevEN
from Wyatt Kaiser, Connor Bedard
4–294% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

CHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Tyler Bertuzzi L18:461+0.62−0.03+0.66−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.01
Teuvo Teravainen C20:481+0.59+0.18+0.44+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.04
Sacha Boisvert C9:181+0.59+0.08+0.52−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.01
Connor Bedard C17:412+0.30+0.16−0.32+0.03−0.01+0.39+0.05
Alex Vlasic D22:27+0.19+0.15+0.00+0.03+0.01+0.00+0.00
Sam Rinzel D21:04+0.12+0.17−0.03−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Andre Burakovsky L9:24+0.09+0.10+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ethan Del Mastro D15:42+0.07+0.07+0.00−0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Kevin Korchinski D11:201+0.04+0.04+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Landon Slaggert L9:581+0.03+0.00−0.16−0.01−0.01+0.19+0.00
Louis Crevier D20:09+0.02+0.06−0.01−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Wyatt Kaiser D20:412−0.01+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ryan Greene C16:17−0.02+0.07−0.06+0.00−0.00+0.00−0.03
Ilya Mikheyev R17:1411−0.23−0.07−0.17+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Frank Nazar C18:571−0.23−0.00−0.04−0.00−0.00−0.19+0.01
Nick Lardis L14:12−0.29+0.23−0.51−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Anton Frondell C16:50−0.50−0.06−0.17−0.00−0.01−0.19−0.05
Ryan Donato C15:12−0.62+0.08−0.67+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Arvid Soderblom G60:00+0.61

SEA

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Jaden Schwartz C14:0811+0.77+0.05+0.72−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Kaapo Kakko R14:391+0.69−0.04+0.75−0.02+0.02+0.00−0.01
Jared McCann L18:30−0.04−0.07+0.00+0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Eeli Tolvanen R14:221−0.04−0.04+0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Ryker Evans D16:51−0.05−0.04+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Frederick Gaudreau C14:05−0.05−0.03−0.06−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.02
Oscar Fisker Molgaard C7:04−0.06−0.04+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Ben Meyers C11:26−0.08−0.04−0.10−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.05
Chandler Stephenson C17:36−0.17−0.21+0.00+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.03
Jamie Oleksiak D16:23−0.17+0.09−0.25−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Matty Beniers C20:491−0.17−0.10−0.12−0.02+0.04+0.00+0.02
Berkly Catton C11:591−0.20+0.08−0.44−0.01+0.00+0.19−0.02
Ryan Lindgren D17:02−0.20+0.00−0.01−0.00+0.00−0.19+0.00
Jordan Eberle R18:57−0.28−0.14−0.15+0.03−0.02+0.00+0.00
Vince Dunn D19:25−0.29−0.30−0.00+0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Brandon Montour D25:03−0.36+0.03−0.38−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00
Adam Larsson D22:02−0.56−0.22−0.13−0.00−0.02−0.19+0.00
Bobby McMann C15:57−0.57−0.19−0.39−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Philipp Grubauer G58:19+0.63

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.