CGY beat ANA 5–3. CGY lost the expected-goals battle 2.4 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Strome scored at 1:20 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Ville Husso allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:11 |  ANA | Beckett Sennecke from Jackson LaCombe, Jacob Trouba | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 13:24 | CGY | Joel Farabee from Matvei Gridin, Kevin Bahl | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 1:20 | CGY | Ryan Strome from Martin Pospisil, Victor Olofsson | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 7:49 | CGY | Matvei Gridin from Joel Farabee, Hunter Brzustewicz | 3–1 | 68% → 83% |
| P2 18:44 | CGY | Morgan Frost from Olli Maatta, Blake Coleman | 4–1 | 89% → 97% |
| P3 7:49 | ANA | Leo Carlsson unassisted | 4–2 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 9:51 | ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Alex Killorn | 4–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 18:49 | CGY | Morgan FrostEN from Matt Coronato | 5–3 | 94% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Farabee L | 15:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.02 | +0.60 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Matvei Gridin R | 14:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.06 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Frost C | 15:32 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.11 | +0.51 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 14:18 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.25 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 19:55 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Yan Kuznetsov D | 17:20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hunter Brzustewicz D | 15:16 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 21:40 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Adam Klapka R | 10:19 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 11:47 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zayne Parekh D | 15:49 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:46 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 24:17 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 13:25 | −0.21 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 25:45 | −0.25 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 15:11 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 18:51 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Victor Olofsson R | 13:08 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devin Cooley G | 60:00 | +0.50 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 20:06 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.07 | +0.67 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Mason McTavish C | 14:50 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beckett Sennecke R | 21:22 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.09 | +0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:46 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Hinds D | 23:22 | +0.17 | +0.14 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 18:14 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| John Carlson D | 23:52 | +0.02 | +0.22 | −0.24 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 10:19 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 8:16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 13:33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:18 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:10 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Olen Zellweger D | 10:52 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gaucher C | 7:51 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 19:35 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.24 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Poehling C | 15:04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 10:08 | −0.31 | +0.03 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:54 | −0.46 | +0.06 | −0.51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 58:28 | −1.69 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.