LAK beat TOR 7–6 in overtime. LAK also won the expected-goals battle 4.6 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Quinton Byfield scored at 2:33 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Darcy Kuemper allowed 4.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:19 | TOR | Matthew Knies from Max Domi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:42 | TOR | Steven LorentzSH unassisted | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 1:11 |  LAK | Quinton Byfield from Jared Wright, Trevor Moore | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 3:55 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Mikey Anderson | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:18 | TOR | John TavaresPP from William Nylander, Matthew Knies | 3–2 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 14:53 | LAK | Artemi Panarin from Brandt Clarke, Adrian Kempe | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 19:47 | TOR | Easton CowanPP from John Tavares, Matthew Knies | 4–3 | 49% → 73% |
| P3 5:46 | LAK | Adrian Kempe from Artemi Panarin, Joel Edmundson | 4–4 | 24% → 52% |
| P3 6:14 | LAK | Samuel Helenius from Taylor Ward, Cody Ceci | 4–5 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 7:22 | LAK | Alex Laferriere from Trevor Moore | 4–6 | 81% → 95% |
| P3 9:37 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Dakota Joshua | 5–6 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 13:29 | TOR | Matthew Knies from John Tavares, Matias Maccelli | 6–6 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 2:33 | LAK | Quinton Byfield from Artemi Panarin, Adrian Kempe | 6–7 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Knies L | 19:44 | 2 | 2 | +1.77 | −0.09 | +1.68 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Steven Lorentz C | 10:33 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.11 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:14 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Easton Cowan R | 18:06 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.34 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:21 | 1 | 2 | +0.44 | −0.28 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 10:38 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 11:44 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 5:05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:18 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:51 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 15:48 | −0.21 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 19:15 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 21:10 | −0.23 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 14:59 | −0.27 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philippe Myers D | 16:41 | −0.33 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 23:45 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 23:24 | 1 | −0.71 | −0.54 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 14:19 | 1 | −1.02 | −0.10 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.58 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 62:17 | −2.67 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinton Byfield R | 21:16 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.26 | +1.48 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adrian Kempe R | 20:02 | 2 | 2 | +1.60 | +0.43 | +1.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Artemi Panarin L | 22:19 | 1 | 2 | +1.13 | +0.50 | +0.51 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Samuel Helenius C | 5:50 | 1 | +1.04 | +0.06 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Laferriere R | 24:10 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.38 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 29:20 | +0.39 | +0.51 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikey Anderson D | 21:48 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.20 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandt Clarke D | 20:11 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Malott L | 5:18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Wright R | 10:40 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Edmundson D | 15:48 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Taylor Ward R | 5:17 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 12:46 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 13:28 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:13 | −0.13 | +0.31 | −0.57 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Trevor Moore L | 20:44 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.32 | −0.44 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joel Armia R | 13:28 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 15:09 | −0.38 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 62:33 | −3.95 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.