UTA beat VAN 7–4. UTA also won the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 1.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Clayton Keller scored on the power play at 7:04 of the second, moving UTA’s win probability from 48% to 67%. Nikita Tolopilo allowed 3.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | UTA–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:28 | VAN | Linus Karlsson from Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Liam Ohgren | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:34 |  UTA | Kailer Yamamoto from Logan Cooley | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:30 | UTA | Clayton Keller from Lawson Crouse, Nick DeSimone | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 2:05 | VAN | Linus Karlsson from Victor Mancini, Teddy Blueger | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:04 | UTA | Clayton KellerPP from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev | 3–2 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 11:55 | UTA | Dylan Guenther from John Marino, Logan Cooley | 4–2 | 69% → 85% |
| P3 0:20 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Filip Hronek | 4–3 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 1:32 | UTA | Lawson Crouse from Clayton Keller | 5–3 | 73% → 90% |
| P3 4:40 | VAN | Marco RossiPP from Filip Hronek, Brock Boeser | 5–4 | 8% → 25% |
| P3 11:45 | UTA | Liam O'Brien from Brandon Tanev, Nate Schmidt | 6–4 | 82% → 97% |
| P3 19:07 | UTA | Clayton KellerEN from Nick Schmaltz, Ian Cole | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
UTA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 17:21 | 3 | 1 | +1.70 | +0.08 | +1.61 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lawson Crouse L | 15:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Dylan Guenther R | 17:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.17 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Liam O'Brien C | 10:21 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:13 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.69 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Michael Carcone L | 12:53 | +0.13 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 15:53 | +0.13 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:45 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 20:02 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Cooley C | 14:45 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nick DeSimone D | 15:54 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 16:00 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Durzi D | 19:31 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:32 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:44 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.38 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 25:01 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| JJ Peterka R | 14:00 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:27 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 60:00 | −2.31 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Karlsson C | 14:04 | 2 | +1.77 | −0.08 | +1.65 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 17:53 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.12 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 16:36 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.06 | +0.49 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:58 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 21:54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aatu Räty C | 12:04 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Sasson C | 12:08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ty Mueller C | 9:21 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Victor Mancini D | 13:21 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 11:52 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tom Willander D | 19:14 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 15:58 | −0.19 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 20:11 | −0.21 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Liam Ohgren L | 16:29 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:06 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 13:00 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 19:57 | 1 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Hronek D | 26:59 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Nikita Tolopilo G | 58:21 | −3.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.