WSH beat BUF 6–2. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jakob Chychrun scored at 3:15 of the first, moving WSH’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Logan Thompson saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:15 |  WSH | Jakob Chychrun from Alex Ovechkin, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 3:35 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Aliaksei Protas, Alex Ovechkin | 0–2 | 69% → 82% |
| P1 5:52 | WSH | Connor McMichael from Jakob Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 0–3 | 82% → 89% |
| P1 6:30 |  BUF | Rasmus Dahlin from Josh Norris, Alex Tuch | 1–3 | 11% → 17% |
| P1 12:15 | BUF | Beck Malenstyn from Jordan Greenway, Rasmus Dahlin | 2–3 | 16% → 30% |
| P2 6:06 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas unassisted | 2–4 | 73% → 87% |
| P3 6:26 | WSH | Ryan Leonard from Cole Hutson, Justin Sourdif | 2–5 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 8:55 | WSH | Tom WilsonSH from Connor McMichael | 2–6 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 22:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.19 | +0.27 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 12:27 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.04 | +0.38 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Metsa D | 15:15 | +0.20 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Josh Norris C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tyson Kozak C | 12:15 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Josh Doan R | 12:57 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 18:20 | −0.04 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:53 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 13:18 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:54 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Quinn R | 18:27 | −0.10 | +0.20 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 15:20 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Tuch R | 16:20 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 20:59 | −0.19 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peyton Krebs C | 12:05 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Owen Power D | 20:22 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 19:20 | −0.32 | +0.13 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Colten Ellis G | 54:08 | −0.98 |
| Alex Lyon G | 5:52 | −2.30 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 17:19 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.15 | +0.78 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:40 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.10 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 16:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.04 | +0.32 | +0.20 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 12:58 | 2 | +0.36 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Leonard R | 12:55 | 1 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.45 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Strome C | 16:38 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.25 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Cole Hutson D | 18:58 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 15:25 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:01 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:44 | −0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 20:25 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 16:11 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.12 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:10 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethen Frank R | 9:34 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:43 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:05 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 20:56 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:03 | 1 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 60:00 | +2.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.