MTL beat NJD 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 3.9, NJD 4.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored on the power play at 17:45 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 8% to 50%. Jakub Dobes saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:58 | MTL | Jayden Struble from Cole Caufield, Arber Xhekaj | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 8:12 | MTL | Ivan DemidovPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 2–0 | 69% → 83% |
| P2 9:28 | MTL | Lane Hutson unassisted | 3–0 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 13:08 |  NJD | Dawson Mercer from Timo Meier, Nico Hischier | 3–1 | 4% → 14% |
| P2 17:40 | NJD | Jack HughesSH from Jesper Bratt, Jonas Siegenthaler | 3–2 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 17:45 | NJD | Timo MeierPP from Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton | 3–3 | 8% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Demidov R | 20:40 | 1 | +1.20 | −0.02 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.79 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 15:28 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.29 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lane Hutson D | 29:47 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.05 | +0.73 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Kapanen C | 14:33 | +0.59 | +0.01 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +1.01 | ||
| Zachary Bolduc R | 15:06 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Arber Xhekaj D | 10:00 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 10:06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 24:01 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 22:08 | −0.24 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 14:43 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 12:11 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 22:15 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.41 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.66 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 16:53 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Newhook C | 15:15 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gallagher R | 9:48 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 22:46 | −0.95 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.49 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:55 | 1 | −1.03 | −0.28 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jakub Dobes G | 65:00 | +1.49 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 26:26 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.22 | +0.37 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.68 |
| Dawson Mercer C | 21:47 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.05 | +0.56 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.32 | +0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Jesper Bratt L | 20:24 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.13 | −0.23 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.60 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 21:08 | +0.17 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 23:47 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.39 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 27:43 | +0.02 | +0.32 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 22:54 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Halonen L | 5:56 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marc McLaughlin C | 4:34 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:15 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 6:27 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.32 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 18:23 | −0.25 | +0.15 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 9:16 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:55 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 22:17 | −0.58 | +0.25 | −0.82 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 9:39 | −0.66 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.49 | ||
| Cody Glass C | 12:43 | −0.69 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.49 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 64:53 | −0.99 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.