NYR beat DET 4–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jaroslav Chmelar scored at 13:19 of the first, moving NYR’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Jonathan Quick saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:19 | NYR | Jaroslav Chmelar from Vladislav Gavrikov, Adam Sykora | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 15:59 | NYR | Gabe Perreault from Mika Zibanejad, Matthew Robertson | 0–2 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 7:13 | NYR | Gabe PerreaultPP from Jonny Brodzinski, Adam Fox | 0–3 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 18:16 | NYR | Gabe PerreaultEN from J.T. Miller, Adam Fox | 0–4 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 19:27 |  DET | David Perron from Emmitt Finnie, James van Riemsdyk | 1–4 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 13:46 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.04 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 14:54 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:53 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Albert Johansson D | 15:23 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Edvinsson D | 20:59 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 28:04 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 11:39 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Axel Sandin-Pellikka D | 16:51 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:07 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 9:31 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 22:22 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Shine R | 5:50 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emmitt Finnie C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Patrick Kane R | 23:06 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 20:30 | −0.43 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Marco Kasper C | 10:07 | −0.48 | −0.03 | −0.43 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 15:43 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.39 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 20:45 | −0.72 | +0.06 | −0.79 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 55:33 | −0.77 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabe Perreault R | 15:44 | 3 | +1.02 | +0.04 | +0.97 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 12:00 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.11 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:00 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 26:00 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 12:05 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 17:44 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 20:51 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Braden Schneider D | 20:13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 13:34 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Sykora L | 11:10 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 18:18 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drew Fortescue D | 11:16 | −0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:12 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 18:44 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 22:39 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Laba C | 15:27 | −0.24 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 11:13 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:05 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Quick G | 59:45 | +2.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.