NJD beat WSH 7–3. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dougie Hamilton scored at 18:19 of the first, moving NJD’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Logan Thompson allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:22 |  NJD | Cody Glass from Lenni Hameenaho, Nick Bjugstad | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:37 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Timo Meier, Nico Hischier | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 8:15 |  WSH | Cole Hutson from Hendrix Lapierre, Tom Wilson | 1–2 | 17% → 30% |
| P1 9:47 | WSH | Pierre-Luc DuboisPP from Ryan Leonard, Jakob Chychrun | 2–2 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 18:19 | NJD | Dougie Hamilton from Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt | 2–3 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 9:10 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Johnathan Kovacevic | 2–4 | 74% → 88% |
| P3 8:10 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Jesper Bratt, Connor Brown | 2–5 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 9:33 | WSH | Tom Wilson from Rasmus Sandin, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 3–5 | 0% → 4% |
| P3 12:16 | NJD | Jesper BrattPP from Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes | 3–6 | 98% → 100% |
| P3 17:54 | NJD | Dawson MercerEN from Jesper Bratt, Jack Hughes | 3–7 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Wilson R | 20:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.14 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 19:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.11 | +0.33 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Cole Hutson D | 18:48 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.11 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 15:22 | +0.25 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Martin Fehérváry D | 16:31 | +0.12 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 17:12 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 17:45 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:34 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 18:56 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 12:46 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McMichael L | 15:23 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 24:55 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 10:49 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 12:07 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 19:10 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 18:05 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.45 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Leonard R | 13:46 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Kampf C | 9:39 | −0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 58:10 | −2.82 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Hughes C | 22:25 | 2 | 3 | +1.35 | −0.00 | +1.14 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 17:38 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Glass C | 12:53 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.10 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:11 | 1 | 4 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.64 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:00 | 2 | +0.08 | −0.16 | +0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 19:03 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 6:58 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Maxim Tsyplakov R | 6:04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:27 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lenni Hameenaho R | 14:09 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 5:43 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 18:29 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 23:22 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 12:59 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 18:44 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 18:08 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 21:08 | 2 | −0.38 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:00 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.