FLA beat BOS 2–1. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mackie Samoskevich scored at 4:20 of the first, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 69%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 2.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:20 |  FLA | Mackie Samoskevich unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 7:39 | FLA | Sam Bennett from A.J. Greer | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 19:33 | BOS | Fraser Minten from Marat Khusnutdinov, David Pastrnak | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fraser Minten C | 15:16 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Jonathan Aspirot D | 17:19 | +0.16 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:53 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Kastelic C | 12:23 | +0.08 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:35 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie McAvoy D | 27:37 | +0.02 | +0.30 | −0.33 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:09 | −0.06 | +0.12 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 14:37 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 14:06 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Jeannot L | 12:42 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Peeke D | 17:46 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 10:03 | −0.13 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 18:29 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:53 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 24:12 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.27 | −0.51 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 15:14 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:42 | −0.26 | +0.18 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marat Khusnutdinov C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Swayman G | 58:18 | +1.18 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 13:56 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.00 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Tobias Bjornfot D | 16:39 | +0.12 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikulas Hovorka D | 11:08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Foote L | 10:56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 20:29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 16:28 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 10:47 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 27:13 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:39 | −0.12 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:47 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:11 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 26:39 | −0.17 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 19:52 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 10:52 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 16:37 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 13:33 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 15:57 | −0.38 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 18:17 | −0.50 | −0.09 | −0.41 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +2.07 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.