SJS beat ANA 4–3. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored at 19:29 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Lukas Dostal allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:37 |  SJS | Will SmithPP from Macklin Celebrini | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 17:47 |  ANA | Ryan Poehling from Drew Helleson, Lukas Dostal | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 14:59 | ANA | Alex Killorn from Drew Helleson, Jackson LaCombe | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 0:27 | SJS | Macklin Celebrini from Will Smith, Collin Graf | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 4:04 | ANA | Troy Terry unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 75% |
| P3 18:21 | SJS | Macklin CelebriniPP from Dmitry Orlov, Will Smith | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| P3 19:29 | SJS | Alexander Wennberg from Macklin Celebrini, Sam Dickinson | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Poehling C | 16:37 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.17 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:21 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.19 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 17:29 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.08 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Olen Zellweger D | 11:44 | +0.27 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeffrey Viel L | 13:24 | +0.14 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Gaucher C | 7:08 | +0.11 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Drew Helleson D | 11:54 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 26:13 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Moore D | 19:24 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 21:32 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 8:44 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 23:23 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 19:30 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Beckett Sennecke R | 13:56 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Washe C | 16:35 | −0.24 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 10:31 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:22 | −0.39 | +0.21 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:48 | −0.44 | +0.23 | −0.60 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Lukas Dostal G | 59:45 | −1.49 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Macklin Celebrini C | 24:03 | 2 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.09 | +1.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Will Smith C | 18:31 | 1 | 2 | +0.80 | +0.10 | +0.73 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:48 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.07 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.11 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 20:48 | +0.27 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 11:28 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Dickinson D | 20:36 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Barclay Goodrow C | 11:26 | +0.02 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Gaudette R | 8:45 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Zack Ostapchuk C | 9:37 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Shakir Mukhamadullin D | 17:00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 20:48 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 19:16 | −0.11 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Collin Graf R | 19:50 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Misa C | 11:18 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| William Eklund L | 15:44 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 18:10 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 15:04 | −0.48 | −0.22 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 9:33 | −0.74 | +0.03 | −0.56 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Yaroslav Askarov G | 59:15 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.