VAN beat COL 8–6. Expected goals were close to even (VAN 2.8, COL 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Marcus Pettersson scored at 14:21 of the third, moving VAN’s win probability from 49% to 86%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:29 | VAN | Max Sasson from Filip Hronek, Zeev Buium | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 1:22 |  COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Devon Toews, Sam Malinski | 1–1 | 38% → 53% |
| P1 5:21 | VAN | Teddy BluegerSH from Liam Ohgren | 2–1 | 46% → 62% |
| P1 11:38 | VAN | Jake DeBruskPP from Elias Pettersson, Marco Rossi | 3–1 | 64% → 77% |
| P1 16:05 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Brent Burns, Valeri Nichushkin | 3–2 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 5:02 | VAN | Teddy Blueger from Max Sasson, Marcus Pettersson | 4–2 | 67% → 82% |
| P2 9:42 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Tom Willander, Marco Rossi | 5–2 | 84% → 95% |
| P2 15:21 | VAN | Brock Boeser from Drew O'Connor | 6–2 | 96% → 99% |
| P2 15:43 | COL | Sam Malinski from Devon Toews | 6–3 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 0:14 | COL | Parker Kelly from Jack Drury, Josh Manson | 6–4 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 13:21 | COL | Brent Burns from Brock Nelson, Valeri Nichushkin | 6–5 | 2% → 16% |
| P3 13:58 | COL | Sam Malinski unassisted | 6–6 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 14:21 | VAN | Marcus Pettersson from Brock Boeser, Drew O'Connor | 7–6 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 18:31 | VAN | Brock BoeserEN from Marcus Pettersson | 8–6 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Blueger C | 19:48 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.09 | +1.56 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Boeser R | 18:57 | 3 | 1 | +1.43 | −0.01 | +1.49 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:07 | 1 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.14 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Max Sasson C | 15:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.02 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:02 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.14 | +0.59 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 20:04 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.06 | |
| Tom Willander D | 18:57 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 6:57 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:01 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zeev Buium D | 15:48 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marco Rossi C | 13:36 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Aatu Räty C | 11:52 | +0.01 | +0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 12:43 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson D | 17:31 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 28:47 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Liam Ohgren L | 17:15 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Linus Karlsson C | 16:59 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Douglas C | 6:18 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 60:00 | −3.31 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Malinski D | 20:52 | 2 | 1 | +1.94 | +0.12 | +1.78 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brent Burns D | 19:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.94 | −0.00 | +0.91 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Parker Kelly C | 12:03 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:21 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.02 | +0.34 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 15:26 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.01 | +0.83 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.39 | −0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:54 | 2 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Necas C | 25:06 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 9:35 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 9:15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 11:08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 11:31 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 8:11 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 16:55 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 19:13 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 13:01 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:59 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:53 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 22:29 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.00 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 22:24 | −0.35 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 35:21 | −4.06 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.