WPG beat CHI 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WPG 2.5, CHI 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 0:33 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Spencer Knight allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:42 | CHI | Anton Frondell from Ilya Mikheyev, Louis Crevier | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 1:06 |  WPG | Josh Morrissey from Kyle Connor, Mark Scheifele | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 11:19 | WPG | Cole PerfettiPP from Alex Iafallo, Mark Scheifele | 2–1 | 48% → 69% |
| P2 11:57 | WPG | Isak Rosen from Danil Zhilkin, Neal Pionk | 3–1 | 69% → 85% |
| P2 13:26 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi unassisted | 3–2 | 14% → 30% |
| P3 9:46 | CHI | Tyler Bertuzzi from Ilya Mikheyev, Louis Crevier | 3–3 | 20% → 52% |
| OT 0:33 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Mark Scheifele, Josh Morrissey | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.14 | +0.40 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:32 | 3 | +0.48 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Isak Rosen R | 7:25 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Connor L | 21:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.01 | +0.14 | +0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:01 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.12 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 22:55 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danil Zhilkin C | 6:54 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Perfetti C | 18:49 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Samberg D | 23:06 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Ford C | 8:10 | +0.05 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Lambert C | 13:01 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.05 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 16:18 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Salomonsson D | 14:44 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 15:45 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:44 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:27 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Bryson D | 10:47 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Koepke L | 14:12 | −0.33 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:33 | −0.74 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 20:03 | 2 | +0.90 | +0.18 | +0.79 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 17:29 | 2 | +0.78 | +0.19 | −0.05 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Frondell C | 16:49 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.01 | +0.21 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Louis Crevier D | 20:37 | 2 | +0.23 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:50 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:53 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Rinzel D | 22:44 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Korchinski D | 12:58 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 13:59 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 13:06 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Landon Slaggert L | 11:11 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Greene C | 16:34 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Lardis L | 14:46 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Nazar C | 17:46 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 13:50 | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 23:07 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ethan Del Mastro D | 14:13 | −0.27 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 19:57 | −0.34 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Spencer Knight G | 60:33 | −1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.