WSH beat PHI 6–4. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Carl Grundstrom scored at 4:36 of the second, moving PHI’s win probability from 28% to 47%. Dan Vladar allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:59 |  WSH | Tom Wilson from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Rasmus Sandin | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 18:35 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Matt Roy, Connor McMichael | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 0:39 | PHI | Travis Sanheim from Travis Konecny, Christian Dvorak | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 4:36 | PHI | Carl Grundstrom from Trevor Zegras | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 6:58 | WSH | Jakob ChychrunPP from Ryan Leonard, Pierre-Luc Dubois | 2–3 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 17:37 | WSH | Ryan LeonardPP from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Jakob Chychrun | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 0:33 | PHI | Christian Dvorak from Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim | 3–4 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 3:47 | WSH | Alex Ovechkin from Connor McMichael, Jakob Chychrun | 3–5 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 7:52 | PHI | Denver Barkey from Rasmus Ristolainen, Noah Cates | 4–5 | 5% → 19% |
| P3 18:56 | WSH | Tom WilsonEN from Pierre-Luc Dubois, Matt Roy | 4–6 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Sanheim D | 22:59 | 1 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.07 | +0.64 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Carl Grundstrom R | 10:46 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.03 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 20:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.03 | +0.59 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Denver Barkey C | 13:38 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.09 | +0.61 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 24:59 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 9:22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Emil Andrae D | 12:59 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 7:23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 11:02 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 14:12 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Drysdale D | 19:49 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 18:18 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matvei Michkov R | 14:09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:30 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Owen Tippett R | 17:17 | −0.26 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Cates L | 18:19 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.09 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Zegras C | 17:46 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Porter Martone R | 16:54 | −0.92 | +0.01 | −0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 57:54 | −2.81 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 15:44 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.13 | +1.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 20:57 | 2 | +0.85 | +0.12 | +0.77 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.15 | +0.67 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Leonard R | 11:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.06 | +0.60 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 17:18 | 4 | +0.26 | +0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 21:53 | +0.11 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 17:17 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 21:11 | +0.06 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Duhaime R | 11:44 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 21:14 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Miroshnichenko L | 6:21 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 8:29 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 18:03 | 2 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 11:59 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Roy D | 19:33 | 2 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.27 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Sourdif C | 19:16 | −0.23 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 16:17 | −0.29 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | ||
| Cole Hutson D | 10:58 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 59:55 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.