BUF beat NYI 4–3. BUF also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Peyton Krebs scored at 16:59 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 51% to 92%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:19 |  BUF | Jack QuinnPP from Josh Norris | 0–1 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 17:57 | NYI | Calum RitchiePP from Brayden Schenn, Bo Horvat | 1–1 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 2:40 | BUF | Tage ThompsonPP from Josh Norris, Jack Quinn | 1–2 | 53% → 78% |
| P3 13:39 | NYI | Anders Lee from Bo Horvat, Matthew Schaefer | 2–2 | 13% → 49% |
| P3 16:59 | BUF | Peyton Krebs from Alex Tuch, Tage Thompson | 2–3 | 51% → 92% |
| P3 18:17 | BUF | Bowen ByramEN from Mattias Samuelsson | 2–4 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:59 | NYI | Brayden SchennPP from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat | 3–4 | 0% → 2% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calum Ritchie C | 16:33 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.08 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 18:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.09 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Anders Lee C | 14:10 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.53 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 12:01 | −0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:19 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 19:17 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Heineman L | 15:21 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle MacLean C | 12:18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 11:29 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Schaefer D | 29:40 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.10 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Gatcomb C | 11:07 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 11:42 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.23 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 21:17 | −0.32 | +0.05 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:17 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:22 | 3 | −0.38 | −0.06 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Boqvist D | 13:02 | −0.39 | −0.06 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:24 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.14 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Carson Soucy D | 19:22 | −0.65 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.39 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 57:52 | +0.40 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson C | 21:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.22 | +0.54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 |
| Peyton Krebs C | 17:37 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.15 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jack Quinn R | 16:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.34 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Alex Tuch R | 20:25 | 1 | +0.27 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Doan R | 13:17 | +0.25 | +0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 22:14 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Greenway L | 11:13 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Metsa D | 14:04 | +0.06 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 22:44 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Logan Stanley D | 13:54 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 23:14 | −0.12 | +0.28 | −0.38 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Benson L | 13:02 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.55 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 19:16 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 18:38 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 11:20 | −0.19 | +0.08 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 15:32 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 6:47 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Norris C | 15:04 | 2 | −0.36 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.39 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen G | 59:41 | −0.13 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.