Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2026-03-29 · Xfinity Mobile Arena

1 – 2Final/OT

PHI beat DAL 2–1 in overtime. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Trevor Zegras scored at 3:27 of overtime, moving PHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Casey DeSmith saved 1.1 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
18 – 30
Expected goals
2.4 – 3.0
xG share
PHI 56%
Home-ice start
PHI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

DAL goalPHI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

DALPHI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

DAL
63:27 TOI
GSAx +1.13
+1.13
PHI
63:27 TOI
GSAx +1.10
+1.10
PHI
1 G, 0 A · 21:24 TOI
On-ice +0.29 · Finishing +0.41 · Penalties +0.19
+0.89

Rough nights

DAL
0 G, 0 A · 23:00 TOI
On-ice −0.09 · Finishing −0.31 · Penalties −0.39
−0.82
DAL
0 G, 0 A · 20:55 TOI
On-ice −0.22 · Finishing −0.34
−0.56
DAL
0 G, 0 A · 21:24 TOI
On-ice −0.11 · Finishing −0.19 · Penalties −0.19
−0.46

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalDAL–PHIWin prob.
P2 9:48 PHITravis KonecnyPP
from Matvei Michkov, Rasmus Ristolainen
0–154% → 74%
P2 17:53 DALArttu HyrySH
unassisted
1–123% → 47%
OT 3:27 PHITrevor Zegras
from Cam York, Samuel Ersson
1–252% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

DAL

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Arttu Hyry R12:201+0.69+0.00+0.69−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.01
Tyler Myers D15:33+0.09+0.08+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Michael Bunting L3:46+0.03+0.06−0.22−0.00+0.00+0.19+0.00
Lian Bichsel D14:53+0.03+0.03+0.00+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00
Nils Lundkvist D17:56−0.01−0.03+0.00+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Colin Blackwell C13:25−0.04−0.03+0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Matt Duchene C17:20−0.05−0.07+0.00+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00
Esa Lindell D23:01−0.05−0.11+0.00+0.01+0.05+0.00+0.00
Adam Erne L10:39−0.07+0.05−0.31−0.01+0.00+0.19+0.00
Justin Hryckowian C14:37−0.09−0.06+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.02
Miro Heiskanen D24:07−0.11−0.13+0.00+0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00
Mavrik Bourque C18:02−0.15−0.10−0.06−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.01
Oskar Bäck C14:12−0.15−0.04−0.11−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Jamie Benn L14:14−0.17−0.06−0.09−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.01
Thomas Harley D25:09−0.21−0.18−0.02+0.00−0.02+0.00+0.00
Mikko Rantanen R21:24−0.46−0.11−0.19+0.03−0.00−0.19+0.00
Jason Robertson L20:55−0.56−0.22−0.34+0.03−0.03+0.00+0.00
Wyatt Johnston C23:00−0.82−0.09−0.31+0.01−0.01−0.39−0.04
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Casey DeSmith G63:27+1.13

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Travis Konecny R21:241+0.89+0.29+0.41+0.01−0.01+0.19+0.00
Trevor Zegras C20:171+0.78+0.18+0.75+0.04−0.00−0.19+0.01
Cam York D24:121+0.31+0.10+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.19+0.00
Rasmus Ristolainen D22:121+0.19+0.21−0.21−0.01+0.01+0.19+0.00
Travis Sanheim D23:19+0.12+0.16−0.04+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Denver Barkey C14:42−0.02−0.02+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Emil Andrae D11:12−0.05−0.05−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Owen Tippett R18:03−0.05+0.09−0.15+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.01
Alex Bump L9:46−0.09−0.08+0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jamie Drysdale D22:10−0.09−0.01−0.07−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Sean Couturier C14:31−0.12+0.03−0.00+0.02+0.00−0.19+0.02
Garnet Hathaway R11:41−0.15−0.05−0.11−0.01+0.03+0.00+0.00
Nick Seeler D16:08−0.15−0.09−0.07−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Luke Glendening C12:27−0.17+0.03−0.18−0.04+0.01+0.00+0.01
Christian Dvorak C19:58−0.20+0.14−0.32+0.00+0.01+0.00−0.03
Matvei Michkov R15:161−0.24+0.01−0.25+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00
Noah Cates L16:45−0.35−0.13−0.24−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.03
Carl Grundstrom R12:18−0.37+0.12−0.49−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Samuel Ersson G63:27+1.10

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.