NYR beat FLA 3–1. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Adam Sykora scored at 5:10 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Igor Shesterkin saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–NYR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P3 5:10 | NYR | Adam Sykora from Adam Fox, Noah Laba | 0–1 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 11:14 | NYR | Conor ShearySH from J.T. Miller | 0–2 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 16:06 | NYR | Adam FoxEN from Will Borgen | 0–3 | 99% → 100% |
| P3 19:19 | FLA | Mackie Samoskevich from Jesper Boqvist, Mike Benning | 1–3 | 0% → 0% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mackie Samoskevich R | 17:43 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.00 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:14 | +0.24 | +0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:29 | +0.14 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:26 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Donovan Sebrango D | 17:42 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nolan Foote L | 11:32 | −0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Benning D | 16:41 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 9:41 | −0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cole Reinhardt L | 11:27 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 16:42 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 19:03 | −0.10 | +0.27 | −0.41 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 19:52 | −0.11 | +0.26 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 14:51 | −0.14 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 15:59 | −0.18 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 24:00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:23 | −0.23 | +0.20 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jesper Boqvist C | 16:51 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 14:50 | −0.43 | −0.08 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 58:34 | +0.25 |
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conor Sheary L | 12:07 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.17 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Sykora L | 10:03 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.15 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaroslav Chmelar R | 12:26 | +0.09 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 17:41 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Robertson D | 16:22 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:17 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Will Cuylle L | 14:08 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabe Perreault R | 13:35 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 19:22 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Gavrikov D | 24:54 | −0.15 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 17:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:55 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 14:10 | −0.26 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 23:52 | 1 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Noah Laba C | 13:20 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.13 | −0.45 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Fortescue D | 16:54 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:21 | −0.39 | +0.12 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Braden Schneider D | 18:49 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +2.03 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.